Abstract: To evaluate the load-bearing capacity of SiC/SiC integral turbine disks, a burst speed prediction approach grounded in the damage mechanisms of ceramic matrix composites was developed. The proposed method integrates composite strength criteria into the classical burst analysis framework, incorporating both the mean stress and ultimate stress methodologies. Based on a two-dimensional plain-woven SiC/SiC integral disk specimen, the burst speed was predicted and experimentally validated, followed by a failure analysis of the fractured disks to identify factors influencing the initiation of failure. The results demonstrate that the mean stress method yields highly accurate predictions, with a relative error of only 0.02%, and successfully reproduces both the initiation site and fracture morphology observed in experiments. In contrast, the ultimate stress method exhibits a considerably larger prediction deviation, with a maximum error of 10.71%, and fails to capture the actual initiation location and fracture pattern. Furthermore, the initiation site of the turbine disk failure is found to be closely correlated with local stress concentration, defect volume, and defect distribution ratio.