基于自动机器学习的混凝土性能预测与可解释性分析

Performance prediction and interpretable analysis of concrete based on automatic machine learning

  • 摘要: 传统机器学习(ML)算法在混凝土性能预测中表现出良好的泛化能力与预测精度,但其复杂的超参数调优过程显著制约了工作效率。为此,本研究引入集成自动超参数优化技术的自动机器学习(AutoML)方法,构建了高效、自动化的混凝土性能机器学习预测框架。首先,收集了涵盖配合比、抗压强度、坍落度及孔隙率的大量试验数据,并分析了影响因素与混凝土性能间的相关性。其次,建立了基于多种算法的AutoML模型,对模型预测结果进行误差分析,并采用决定系数(R2)等五项指标综合评估模型性能。最后,依据SHAP值理论对预测结果进行了可解释性分析。结果表明,AutoGluon模型对抗压强度和孔隙率的预测效果最优(其中抗压强度65.2%预测误差分布于±2 MPa内,R2=0.959;孔隙率R2=0.973);MLjar模型则对坍落度预测效果最佳(R2=0.879)。SHAP值分析表明,水泥用量、胶凝材料用量和粗骨料用量分别是影响抗压强度、孔隙率及坍落度的关键因素。

     

    Abstract: Traditional machine learning (ML) algorithms exhibit good generalization capabilities and prediction accuracy in concrete performance prediction; however, their complex hyperparameter tuning process significantly constrains work efficiency. To address this, this study introduces an automated machine learning (AutoML) approach incorporating ensemble automatic hyperparameter optimization techniques, establishing an efficient and automated framework for concrete performance prediction. Firstly, a large amount of experimental data encompassing mix proportions, compressive strength, slump, and porosity was collected, and the correlations between influencing factors and concrete properties were analyzed. Secondly, AutoML models based on various algorithms were developed, error analysis was performed on the model prediction results, and model performance was comprehensively evaluated using five metrics including the coefficient of determination (R2). Finally, interpretability analysis of the prediction results was conducted based on SHAP value theory. The results demonstrate that the AutoGluon model delivered the optimal prediction performance for compressive strength (65.2% of prediction errors distributed within ±2 MPa, R2=0.959) and porosity (R2=0.973), while the MLjar model achieved the best prediction for slump (R2=0.879). SHAP analysis revealed that cement content, binder content, and coarse aggregate content are the key factors influencing compressive strength, porosity, and slump, respectively.

     

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