Abstract: To improve the service stability and self-healing capability of anticorrosive coatings, a waterborne polyurethane (WPU) self-healing coating system incorporating tung oil/urea-formaldehyde (UF@TO) microcapsules was developed and systematically evaluated. The microcapsules were synthesized via Pickering emulsion polymerization and exhibited uniform morphology and excellent thermal stability. Their structural and encapsulation characteristics were characterized using SEM, FTIR, and TGA. The results revealed that microcapsules with particle sizes of 2–6 μm and loadings of 10–12wt.% achieved optimal dispersion and healing performance within the coating matrix. Based on integral geometry and geometric probability theory, a capsule–crack encounter probability model was constructed, and a Python-based algorithm was developed to enable automated modeling and multi-parameter optimization of healing efficiency. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and mechanical testing confirmed that, after 72 hours of immersion in saline solution, the impedance modulus increased by nearly two orders of magnitude, while the coating retained high adhesion and impact resistance—demonstrating excellent healing responsiveness and anticorrosion performance. A self-healing mechanism was proposed involving crack initiation, capsule rupture, tung oil release, and subsequent film formation at the damaged site. This study provides theoretical insight and practical reference for the structural design and performance optimization of waterborne self-healing anticorrosive coatings.